We often associate droughts with parched soil and scorching sun so it can be easy to forget that a drought is ongoing when we look out at a snow-covered landscape. However, according to the AEPA’s most recent drought assessment on March 11, the Red Deer River Watershed remains in a state of “Moderate Drought” (GOA, 2026f).
Alberta Agriculture’s cold season precipitation map for November 1, 2025, to March 11, 2026, indicates that most of the watershed has received normal or above-normal precipitation, with the areas west of Red Deer and the southeastern portion of the basin receiving below average precipitation (GOA, 2026a) . Furthermore, in early March, the province conducted 10 snow course surveys across the upper to central portions of the watershed, finding that all but one area measured normal or above-normal snow water equivalence (GOA, 2026g).
So why the drought? As shown in the map above, precipitation is not uniformly distributed across the basin, with some areas experiencing below average levels and others experiencing average to above-average. Even so, precipitation is only part of the equation. Higher temperatures increase evapotranspiration and sublimation, reducing the water available to saturate the ground and replenish lakes and rivers. Additionally, long-term soil moisture deficits are debts that aren’t immediately resolved by incoming moisture. Like a desiccated sponge, dry soils require a significant amount of water to become re-saturated.
Three-month temperature maps, also published on March 11, show that most of the Red Deer River Watershed has experienced moderately warm temperatures, with the mountainous portions largely experiencing warm to very warm temperatures. Soil moisture maps, modeled to estimate spring wheat soil moisture to a depth of 120cm, reveal diverse conditions across the watershed, ranging from driest to high. However, the majority of the upper half of the basin exhibits “moderately low” to “very low” soil moisture, with the areas surrounding Red Deer experiencing “extremely low” to “driest” conditions (GOA, 2026a). Although continued precipitation can improve the situation, AEPA modelling indicates only a 0 to 30% chance of returning to normal spring wheat soil moisture conditions by May 1 for the driest areas of the basin (GOA, 2026c).
To see all of the moisture maps, go here: Alberta Climate and Atlas Maps
References
Government of Alberta. (2026a, March 11). AgroClimatic Information Service (ACIS): 90-Day Average Daily Mean Temperature Relative to Long-Term Normal [map]. Retrieved March 16, 2026, from https://www.acis.alberta.ca/acis/climate-maps.jsp
Government of Alberta. (2026b, March 11). AgroClimatic Information Service (ACIS): Cold Season Precipitation Accumulations Relative to Long-Term Normal [map]. Retrieved March 16, 2026, from https://www.acis.alberta.ca/acis/climate-maps.jsp
Government of Alberta. (2026c, March 11). AgroClimatic Information Service (ACIS): Probability of Returning to Normal Spring Wheat Soil Moisture Conditions [map]. Retrieved March 16, 2026, from https://www.acis.alberta.ca/acis/climate-maps.jsp
Government of Alberta. (2026d, March 11). AgroClimatic Information Service (ACIS): Spring Wheat Soil Moisture Conditions Relative to Long-Term Normal [map]. Retrieved March 16, 2026, from https://www.acis.alberta.ca/acis/climate-maps.jsp
Government of Alberta. (2026e). AgroClimatic Information Service (ACIS): Climate maps [maps]. Retrieved March 16, 2026, from https://www.acis.alberta.ca/acis/climate-maps.jsp
Government of Alberta. (2026f). Alberta River Basins [Interactive map]. Retrieved March 16, 2026, from https://rivers.alberta.ca/?View=wma&Layers=DC
Government of Alberta. (2026g, March 6). Snow Survey Results: March 2026 [Image]. https://rivers.alberta.ca/Contents/SnowPack/2026/3/06_SnowSurveyDots_2026-03.png